[open-economics] [Project-discussion] Oil Industry

Thu Feb 19 01:02:22 UTC 2015

No problem. This is an interesting problem and looks like useful
information I have not seen people working with this stuff at conferences
or in the literature which is what makes it interesting. I think it will
make a useful classroom resource as well.

This is a draft of Libecap's unitization article:
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=81574

for the New Palgrave.

Rodney

On Thu, Feb 19, 2015 at 12:52 AM, Gustavo Silva <
gustavosantaremsilva at gmail.com> wrote:

> Theorizing an industry can be a tough challenge, yes, but the uniqueness
> behind it is that you can do it with the assumptions you want.
> I understand your point and since you and Volodymyr are more into the oil
> industry, I will follow your suggestion to rearrange data first and then
> proceed with further researches. My suggestions would not require data for
> the initial phase, but if you think we will not be able to actually do
> anything good out of it, then I guess we should follow your suggestion.
>
> I'll wait for a couple of days to see everybody's interest about this and,
> hopefully, we'll get enough people to quickly start doing something!
>
> Thank you for your active participation Rodney. I really appreciate it.
>
> 2015-02-19 0:49 GMT+00:00 Rodney Beard <rodney.m.beard at gmail.com>:
>
>> The problem is many of the variables in Libecap's models are not going to
>> be in the contracts. his work is the only work I am aware of that presents
>> a detailed model of upstream oil contracts. Perhaps someone else knows of
>> others. the contracts vary across many countries the details will be quite
>> variable. I'm arguing for something even simpler at this stage than what
>> you are proposing. theory isn't going to help us that much initially we
>> need to udnerstand the insitutional seting of these contracts. Before
>> delving into the theory. That said Libecap has a New Palgrave article on
>> unitization we should look at to see whether any of these contracts are
>> characterized by that. We need to take baby steps to start with before
>> trying anything sophisticated.
>>
>> The first point suggested by Volodymyr and yourself about rearranging the
>> database is closer to what I had in mind. basically systematize and
>> classify it. I really don't think more can be done initially. At least not
>> if we want to do a professional job of it.
>>
>> Rodney
>>
>>
>>
>> On Thu, Feb 19, 2015 at 12:38 AM, Gustavo Silva <
>> gustavosantaremsilva at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>> Rodney, that is the purpose of a theoretical study. You can analyze the
>>> impact of specific variables and if we already have a decent framework to
>>> work with, when it highlights the most important variables, for instance,
>>> that it gets easier for us since we already have that. It is not
>>> contradicting normatives or anything like that. It's saying that,
>>> theoretically, these agreements are positive or negative to the society.
>>> Consumer surplus and producer surplus are an easy variable to analyse -
>>> theoretically. Empirically, that is a different challenge.
>>>
>>> My suggestion to start with this small analysis is to help us to know
>>> each other more and also to get something running. Perhaps more curious
>>> people will also get involved. In the future, everything that is in regard
>>> to data will need a lot of inputs, work, researches and so on. Since it is
>>> a more troublesome task, I am proposing to leave it to last since we can't
>>> just make it happen, for now...
>>>
>>> Besides, we can still have our purpose of investigation but we can
>>> change it later if needed. Let's say we want to investigate the same
>>> theoretical model but with data. However, we'll get to the conclusion we
>>> don't have enough data. It is a conclusion, although not a good one.
>>> However, we can change our priorities so that we can gather some resources
>>> in order to deliver our initial research.
>>>
>>> Does that sound more executable?
>>>
>>> 2015-02-19 0:30 GMT+00:00 Rodney Beard <rodney.m.beard at gmail.com>:
>>>
>>>> It is going to be difficult to measure welfare consequences of the
>>>> contracts directly without other data and an appropriate framework. I think
>>>> the first thing is to see what is there and determine an appropriate way to
>>>> utilize the information. To measure welfare consequences from one contract
>>>> to another how do you do that? You need an estimate of consumer or producer
>>>> surplus or something? Libecap gives in some of his work hints on how to
>>>> formulate a model but it relies on things like lease data. I can get lease
>>>> data but I think there is plenty of stuff to mine in the contracts.
>>>>
>>>> Just picking a few and trying to reproduce table 1 from Libecap and
>>>> smith (1999) (not 2002 made a mistake earlier) would be something. We need
>>>> to walk before we can run. Making statements about the normative properties
>>>> of one contract versus another at this stage is way too ambitious.
>>>>
>>>> Rodney
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Thu, Feb 19, 2015 at 12:05 AM, Gustavo Silva <
>>>> gustavosantaremsilva at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> @Rodney,
>>>>>
>>>>> Thank you. It is more clear now.
>>>>> Your suggestions seems something good to when we have more people
>>>>> available since it may imply a lot of work in regard to the data. Maybe we
>>>>> could wait for a couple of days to see who's interested in this or not.
>>>>>
>>>>> However, Mr. Volodymyr suggested two interesting topics:
>>>>> - Rearrange this database that is confusing for the interested parts;
>>>>> - Compare PSA (production sharing agreements) signed in the
>>>>> developing countries effects - Welfare, wellness, and so on.
>>>>>
>>>>> Personally, the latest is the best suggestion and the most exact one
>>>>> we have so far. Besides, it seems more executable for us, since we're short
>>>>> in human resources. I haven't thought about it through, but I think it
>>>>> would be a great start. It is something that has an impact and is very
>>>>> important to the surrounding societies. We could try to do a theoretical
>>>>> research and study its predicted effects - simply by modeling the industry
>>>>> and compute the results. Later, after gathering enough data, we could run
>>>>> an empirical study. After that, since we would already more data and it
>>>>> would be related to oil contracts and agreements, perhaps we could move on
>>>>> to your research topic, Rodney.
>>>>>
>>>>> What do you guys think?
>>>>>
>>>>> I can't stress this enough: Thank you very much for your collaboration.
>>>>>
>>>>> @Iyyanki,
>>>>> Thank you for your support!
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> 2015-02-18 23:57 GMT+00:00 Rodney Beard <rodney.m.beard at gmail.com>:
>>>>>
>>>>>> Briefly my idea would be to go through Libecap's work and attempt to
>>>>>> apply it to a case study of one or more oil contracts. I haven't really
>>>>>> thought about the details but a brief glance indicates that not all data
>>>>>> will be available in the open oil contract database and we would have to
>>>>>> draw on other data. I can point to where to to find some of it later. It's
>>>>>> not clear to me actually what is in each contract and how it relates to the
>>>>>> theory, so I think part of the task is identifying that.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Table 1 Libecap & Smith 2002 summarizes the sort of information that
>>>>>> I would expect to find in the open oil database. First thing is to identify
>>>>>> what actually is in the database.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Rodney
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> On Wed, Feb 18, 2015 at 11:45 PM, Gustavo Silva <
>>>>>> gustavosantaremsilva at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Hi Rodney,
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Could you elaborate on the type of framework we should look at? I
>>>>>>> mean, situations like that happen often - I took advantage of something
>>>>>>> similar to develop my thesis, for instance - but it was not clear the
>>>>>>> specific topic that that framework covers (Prices, firm's behaviors, etc).
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> However, I understand that work involves merges in oil industry!?
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Thank you for your collaboration.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> 2015-02-18 23:38 GMT+00:00 Rodney Beard <rodney.m.beard at gmail.com>:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Hi Gustavo,
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> as previously mentioned some of Gary Libecap's work on oil filed
>>>>>>>> unitization and contracts would provide a framework for the type of data
>>>>>>>> contained in the open oil database on contracts. My impression is that the
>>>>>>>> work to date didn't look at this literature.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Scholar search here:
>>>>>>>> https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&q=libecap+oil+contract&btnG=&as_sdt=1%2C5&as_sdtp=
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Rodney
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> On Wed, Feb 18, 2015 at 11:26 PM, Gustavo Silva <
>>>>>>>> gustavosantaremsilva at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Hi all,
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> After regaining my strength after a tough breakdown at another
>>>>>>>>> project, I thought about what we could do to re-start the group. Most of
>>>>>>>>> the people previously involved left the group and/or moved away to other
>>>>>>>>> things and, thus, the group is kind of stumbling upon itself.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> It is crucial to rapidly get involved with a couple of projects
>>>>>>>>> and get some results so that people realize we're alive and kicking.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> The oil industry is a very peculiar one and so I believe it is a
>>>>>>>>> great start - specially since the literature is vague and not very concise
>>>>>>>>> in specific matters. That is why the group has previously done a model
>>>>>>>>> of an oil contract
>>>>>>>>> <http://openeconomics.net/2013/10/22/open-model-of-an-oil-contract/>,
>>>>>>>>> partnering up with Open Oil group. However, that research was not concluded
>>>>>>>>> and we must proceed.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> In this specific thread, there are two main things I wish to know
>>>>>>>>> from you:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>  1. Who's interested to get involved in this topic? I know Samira
>>>>>>>>> and Rodney want to help, even though their contribution is kind of limited
>>>>>>>>> due to real life commitments. However, as you understand, as more people
>>>>>>>>> get involved, better for us.
>>>>>>>>>  2. Which particular topics would you like to develop? Personally,
>>>>>>>>> I would vote for theoretical models to, first, explain some firm's
>>>>>>>>> behaviors in the market and, later, proceed with empirical analysis, using
>>>>>>>>> open data - of course.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Please let us know your thoughts. Even if we are only a few
>>>>>>>>> collaborating, we can deliver amazing things, I am sure!
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Thank you in advance and I apologize to spam the OK's main mailing
>>>>>>>>> list, but thought others would like to get involved with us.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>>>> Best Regards / Obrigado e com os melhores cumprimentos,
>>>>>>>>> Gustavo
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> _______________________________________________
>>>>>>>>> open-economics mailing list
>>>>>>>>> open-economics at lists.okfn.org
>>>>>>>>> https://lists.okfn.org/mailman/listinfo/open-economics
>>>>>>>>> Unsubscribe: https://lists.okfn.org/mailman/options/open-economics
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>> Best Regards / Obrigado e com os melhores cumprimentos,
>>>>>>> Gustavo
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> --
>>>>> Best Regards / Obrigado e com os melhores cumprimentos,
>>>>> Gustavo Silva
>>>>>
>>>>> *Open Economics <http://openeconomics.net>, Work Group Coordinator*
>>>>> *Phonebloks <https://phonebloks.com/en>, Partnership Manager*
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> --
>>> Best Regards / Obrigado e com os melhores cumprimentos,
>>> Gustavo Silva
>>>
>>> *Open Economics <http://openeconomics.net>, Work Group Coordinator*
>>> *Phonebloks <https://phonebloks.com/en>, Partnership Manager*
>>>
>>>
>>
>
>
> --
> Best Regards / Obrigado e com os melhores cumprimentos,
> Gustavo Silva
>
> *Open Economics <http://openeconomics.net>, Work Group Coordinator*
> *Phonebloks <https://phonebloks.com/en>, Partnership Manager*
>
>
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