[wsfii-discuss] Worldchanging article on Complementary currencies

[Adrian Short]

> I've been lurking on this thread for a while reading all the mails regarding
> complimentary currencies. However, given the following statement:
> "It's pretty clear to me that cash as we know it will cease to exist in
> a few years"
>
> Would you like to put a date (and a bet on this)?

I'd love to.

Cash as we knew it has already been abolished in the UK. Banks do not
have to keep any specific reserves in cash. You can't get paid state
benefits in cash. It's not possible to buy relatively high-value items
or make bank deposits in cash in the UK without surrendering the
benefit of anonymity, due to money-laundering regulations. I believe
the limit is 10,000 GBP but individual institutions may have lower
limits. There are international agreements on money laundering that
apply in most countries. Everywhere you look, cash is getting squeezed
out and is accepted either grudgingly or at a disadvantage to the
buyer except for the smallest transactions where electronic transfer
costs exceed the value of the sale. Socially, we're already at the
point where if you have a large amount of cash, people assume you're a
crook - and they're probably right.

When the Northern Bank in Belfast got raided, the thieves took so much
cash (26.5 million GBP) that the bank withdrew all the similar notes
in circulation. How many more times do you expect them to want to do
that?

"(Northern Ireland Chief Constable Hugh) Orde revealed that Northern
Bank, the victim of the robbery, would be withdrawing all its
banknotes and replacing them with differently coloured ones, making
the robbery "the largest theft of waste paper in history".

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Northern_Ireland/Story/0,2763,1385473,00.html

Poor old cash. It's going into retirement. Perhaps we should have a
whip-round for it.

Twenty years ago, no-one had mobile phones. Now, almost everyone has
one and many have mobile, wireless broadband, video telephony etc.
People settle up minor debts between friends and family with Paypal.
As technological progress accelerates, science fiction is becoming
everyday mundane reality incredibly quickly.

How long, then, before people can do peer-to-peer electronic payments?
Five years? Ten? Past that point, why would anyone want or need cash?
Would they be reasons that governments and banks would allow to
override the convenience and security that it brings them? Every
technological advance is exploited to limit the scope of cash as soon
as it becomes available, and the point at which this is absolute is
fast approaching.

I'm 99% certain that cash _in the developed world_ will be gone in 20
years, 50% certain that it'll be gone in ten. It's both a problem and
an opportunity. I intend to maximise the opportunity.