[wdmmg-discuss] UK tax and cuts

[Tim Hubbard]

Hi Lisa,

At 22:58 +0100 13/6/10, Lisa Evans wrote:
>I was hoping you'd add more Tim, thank you.
>
>I've come up with three methods for making a list of spending cut choices.
>
>1. We could start from the list of results from Chop or Not
>(http://chopornot.channel4.com/) and use the costings that channel 4 used.

The problem with chopornot is that it isn't clear how much you are 
chopping or what the consequence is - at least I couldn't find it.

I think for each area of potential cuts, for a couple of different 
cut levels it should be clear:

- how much do you save
- what do you lose in terms of services
- how many jobs are lost
- etc.

For the taxation model I have so far, its possible to change the 
taxation rates for income tax, national insurance, vat etc. and see 
what the consequence is for:

- income of individuals
- change in the total amount of tax revenue


>2. We could look for items on COINS that represent a likely selection.
>
>3. We categorise types of spending in COINS and allow people to 'drill
>down' into those categories of spending and allow more details of the type
>of spending so people can choose if they would want to cut this spending
>or not. The way COINS is organised by different National Account Codes
>that are listed in Annex B of the COINS guidance, might be a good
>categorisation to start with. Or maybe COFOG is a better starting point.
>
>Other suggestions are most welcome. Let me know what you think.

Given that so much work is being done with COINS, perhaps it would be 
good to bulid on that...hoping of course that government will 
continue with the COINS model in the future (*)

Best wishes,

Tim

(*) in constructing the tax model, I've been somewhat dismayed at the 
way that HMRC, treasury etc. randomly change the way they measure 
things every few years - one year they have stats on 14 income bands 
the next 12, for no clear reason - its like each time they generate a 
set of stats, they start from scratch!

>Lisa
>
>On Fri, 11 Jun 2010, Tim Hubbard wrote:
>
>>  To follow up on Lisa's email:
>>
>>  At 16:25 +0100 11/6/10, Lisa Evans wrote:
>>  >We have an exciting new project!
>>  >
>>  >With the emergency budget consultation, we are planning a simple
>>  >interactive tool that will show the consequences of tax increases
>>  >and cuts.
>>  >
>>  >The idea, and all of the work so far, is from Dr Tim Hubbard.
>>  >Would other people like to join this little research team to get
>>  >this up and running in time?
>>
>>  To give an idea of what has been so far - I've been working on a
>>  spreadsheet modelling the different types of UK taxation, so that its
>>  possible to increase income tax or national insurance or capital
>>  gains and see how that effects individuals in different income bands
>>  and the total amount raised in a year.  Of course the figures are
>>  going to be rough, but already its possible to see how much its would
>>  be necessary to raise taxes to make a significant impact on the
>>  deficit for example.  Lisa is similarly modelling the effect of cuts.
>>  The idea is to build a website around this data where people can play
>>  around with the controls and try and balence the UK budget, making
>>  their choice between cuts and tax rises.
>>
>>  The aim is to start simple with a static model...it could be made
>>  progressively more realistic over time (if it can be worked out how)
>>  with feedback loops, change over time etc.
>>
>>  One key issue is that if this is to influence the current political
>>  debate - and I think there's a real chance to do this, given OKFs
>>  profile with http://www.wheredoesmymoneygo.org/ and data.gov.uk - the
>>  site needs to be built really, really fast...
>>
>>  >We need:
>>  >
>>  >- suggestions for cuts
>>  >- ways we can measure if the effects of the changes will be good
>>  >enough - advice on taxation
>>  >- suggestions for a name for the project
>>
>>  ...and a catchy name would be really good!
>>
>>  following on from wheredoesmymoneygo might be
>>
>>  www.howwouldicutthedeficit.org (hwictd)
>  >
>>  although its a bit long
>>
>>  or something completely different and shorter
>>
>>  www.selfgov.org (domain is taken though)
>>
>>  ideas?
>>
>>
>>  Best wishes,
>>
>>  Tim
>>



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Dr Tim Hubbard                         email: th at sanger.ac.uk
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URL: http://www.sanger.ac.uk/research/faculty/thubbard/
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