[wdmmg-discuss] UK tax and cuts

Tue Jun 15 20:59:48 UTC 2010

re UK tax and cuts project.

If anyone wants to see how far we've got, I've published the current 
version of the spreadsheet we're working on readonly.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AjRWhOOrlkGIdE5NLTVpMExvUklLNnFoaW1CM1dDVXc&hl=en&output=html

Sheet 1 models the different taxes currently applied and the 
consequences of any increases.

The base figures are currently not quite right, being based mainly on 
2008-09 projections before the recession - I will adjust them to fit 
OBR (office budget responsibility) june 2010 pre-budget forecast 
numbers shortly.

If you open the spreadsheet you should be able to save a copy and 
play with it, though not edit the original.   Numbers in yellow can 
be changed to simulate tax changes - the spreadsheet calculates the 
effect for both the income to the treasury and for individuals in 
different income bands.

A few increases are already inserted, such as
- a 2% increase in income tax
- a 1% increase in NI (employer one was already announced)
- a 2.5% increase in VAT.
- a 2% increase in corporation tax

The changes in this senario results in a 37 billion pound increase in 
revenue over the 7.9 billion income tax increases already committed 
for 2010-11.

Suggestions for other possible tax senarios welcome!

Also please lookout for bugs.  As I said, I haven't adjusting things 
yet to bring the base line numbers into line with the OBR (office 
budget responsibility) june 2010 pre-budget forecast - however I 
think the relative effect of the senario tax increases outlined above 
will be similar.

While 37 billion looks like a lot, its only about half of the 85 
billion the institute of fiscal studies says we need to save by 
2014-15 in their recent statement. 
http://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/5034

Best wishes,

Tim
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Dr Tim Hubbard                         email: th at sanger.ac.uk
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